1. "rapid economic growth and high levels of employment always used to be, I think, deemed to be the core of the Communist Party's legitimacy to rule and the leader’s authority within the party”. As Martin Jacques explains, "The reason the State enjoys a formidable legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese has nothing to do with democracy but can be found in the relationship between the State and Chinese civilization. The State is seen as the embodiment, guardian and defender of Chinese civilization. Maintaining the unity, cohesion and integrity of the Chinese civilization-state is perceived as the highest political priority, the sacrosanct task of the Chinese State. Unlike in the West, where the State is viewed with varying degrees of suspicion, even hostility and regarded, as a consequence, as an outsider, in China the state is seen as an intimate, as part of the family, indeed as the head of the family".
2. "I think the outlook for China over the next 10, 15 years or so, is that it's a low growth economy”. The world's leading development economist, Justin Yifu Lin, says it can grow 8% annually until 2050 if the government so wishes.
1. I think Jacques overstates this. In my time in China I have frequently heard mention of the social pact between the CCP and the people, namely "economic growth and security in exchange for personal freedom". And history backs this up. When economic stress occurs, especially if it is accompanied by environmental issues (drought/plague etc) then the Mandate of Heaven starts to slip. The Ming were prime examples of this. So, at the end of the day, no matter how intrusive or intimate the relationship between man/woman and state, when people lose their jobs and see their prospects diminish they aren't going to be happy with the status quo. And the status quo is the CCP.
2. Of course Lin is going to say that - he defected from TW and lives in China, so he can't really say anything else! Seriously, what is he basing this prediction on? George and Stewart - who are two of the world's leading economists on China and have the advantage of not having the CCP on their doorstep - both point out the red flags, red flags that are quite common in middle income countries. I'd like to know how Lin would push back on their evidence-based assertions.
Every dutiful citizen of every nation 'exchanges economic growth and security for personal freedom'. It's the price of civilization, and one of Confucius’ greatest legacies is his explication of rights and responsibilities. ‘Freedoms’ are awfully vague and culture-dependent, but ‘rights’ are better defined, thanks the the UN Declaration, and China’s human rights record is among the world’s best.
I agree that, when people lose their jobs and see their prospects diminish, they’ll be unhappy with the status quo. The status quo in China is socialism. What percentage of Chinese would prefer America's status quo, capitalism in good times or bad?
You're right about "When economic stress occurs, especially if it is accompanied by environmental issues (drought/plague etc) then the Mandate of Heaven starts to slip," UNLESS the government has the trust of the people. In that case it can dispense with the food, as the Party did during '59-'61 famine (during which nobody starved to death, bts), and came through unscathed because they had followed Confucius:
Confucius' disciple asked him about the essence of good government and he replied, “The requisites of government are that there be a sufficiency of food, enough military equipment, and the confidence of the people in their ruler.”
The disciple asked: “If it were necessary to dispense with one of these, which of the three should be done without?” Confucius answered: “The military equipment.”
He asked again, “If it were necessary to dispense with one of the remaining two, which one should be foregone?”
Confucius replied, “Part with the food. Death has always been the lot of men; but if the people have no faith in their rulers, then the state cannot exist.”
I've been comparing our media's predictions to the real life Chinese economy for 60 years and their 100% pessimistic predictions have been 100% wrong. I kept a few as souvenirs.
1990. China's economy has come to a halt. The Economist
1996. China's economy will face a hard landing. The Economist
1998. China's economy’s dangerous period of sluggish growth. The Economist
1999. Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Bank of Canada
2000. China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. Chicago Tribune
2001. A hard landing in China. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas
2002. China Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. Westchester University
2003. Banking crisis imperils China. New York Times
2004. The great fall of China? The Economist
2005. The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. Nouriel Roubini
2006. Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? International Economy
2007. Can China avoid a hard landing? TIME
2008. Hard Landing In China? Forbes
2009. China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. Fortune
2010: Hard landing coming in China. Nouriel Roubini
2011: Chinese Hard Landing Closer Than You Think. Business Insider
2012: Economic News from China: Hard Landing. American Interest
2013: A Hard Landing In China. Zero Hedge
2014. A hard landing in China. CNBC
2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Forbes
2016. Hard landing looms for China. The Economist
2017. Is China's Economy Going To Crash? National Interest
2018. China's Coming Financial Meltdown. The Daily Reckoning.
2019 China's Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? BBC2020. Coronavirus Could End China's Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak. NY Times
2021 Chinese economy risks deeper slowdown than markets realize. Bloomberg
2022. China Surprise Data Could Spell R-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n. Bloomberg.
What precise parts of George’s analysis do you disagree with?
An interesting point of view! Two quibbles:
1. "rapid economic growth and high levels of employment always used to be, I think, deemed to be the core of the Communist Party's legitimacy to rule and the leader’s authority within the party”. As Martin Jacques explains, "The reason the State enjoys a formidable legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese has nothing to do with democracy but can be found in the relationship between the State and Chinese civilization. The State is seen as the embodiment, guardian and defender of Chinese civilization. Maintaining the unity, cohesion and integrity of the Chinese civilization-state is perceived as the highest political priority, the sacrosanct task of the Chinese State. Unlike in the West, where the State is viewed with varying degrees of suspicion, even hostility and regarded, as a consequence, as an outsider, in China the state is seen as an intimate, as part of the family, indeed as the head of the family".
2. "I think the outlook for China over the next 10, 15 years or so, is that it's a low growth economy”. The world's leading development economist, Justin Yifu Lin, says it can grow 8% annually until 2050 if the government so wishes.
Thanks Godfree. To answer your points:
1. I think Jacques overstates this. In my time in China I have frequently heard mention of the social pact between the CCP and the people, namely "economic growth and security in exchange for personal freedom". And history backs this up. When economic stress occurs, especially if it is accompanied by environmental issues (drought/plague etc) then the Mandate of Heaven starts to slip. The Ming were prime examples of this. So, at the end of the day, no matter how intrusive or intimate the relationship between man/woman and state, when people lose their jobs and see their prospects diminish they aren't going to be happy with the status quo. And the status quo is the CCP.
2. Of course Lin is going to say that - he defected from TW and lives in China, so he can't really say anything else! Seriously, what is he basing this prediction on? George and Stewart - who are two of the world's leading economists on China and have the advantage of not having the CCP on their doorstep - both point out the red flags, red flags that are quite common in middle income countries. I'd like to know how Lin would push back on their evidence-based assertions.
Whose Status Quo?
Every dutiful citizen of every nation 'exchanges economic growth and security for personal freedom'. It's the price of civilization, and one of Confucius’ greatest legacies is his explication of rights and responsibilities. ‘Freedoms’ are awfully vague and culture-dependent, but ‘rights’ are better defined, thanks the the UN Declaration, and China’s human rights record is among the world’s best.
I agree that, when people lose their jobs and see their prospects diminish, they’ll be unhappy with the status quo. The status quo in China is socialism. What percentage of Chinese would prefer America's status quo, capitalism in good times or bad?
You're right about "When economic stress occurs, especially if it is accompanied by environmental issues (drought/plague etc) then the Mandate of Heaven starts to slip," UNLESS the government has the trust of the people. In that case it can dispense with the food, as the Party did during '59-'61 famine (during which nobody starved to death, bts), and came through unscathed because they had followed Confucius:
Confucius' disciple asked him about the essence of good government and he replied, “The requisites of government are that there be a sufficiency of food, enough military equipment, and the confidence of the people in their ruler.”
The disciple asked: “If it were necessary to dispense with one of these, which of the three should be done without?” Confucius answered: “The military equipment.”
He asked again, “If it were necessary to dispense with one of the remaining two, which one should be foregone?”
Confucius replied, “Part with the food. Death has always been the lot of men; but if the people have no faith in their rulers, then the state cannot exist.”
I've been comparing our media's predictions to the real life Chinese economy for 60 years and their 100% pessimistic predictions have been 100% wrong. I kept a few as souvenirs.
1990. China's economy has come to a halt. The Economist
1996. China's economy will face a hard landing. The Economist
1998. China's economy’s dangerous period of sluggish growth. The Economist
1999. Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Bank of Canada
2000. China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. Chicago Tribune
2001. A hard landing in China. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas
2002. China Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. Westchester University
2003. Banking crisis imperils China. New York Times
2004. The great fall of China? The Economist
2005. The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. Nouriel Roubini
2006. Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? International Economy
2007. Can China avoid a hard landing? TIME
2008. Hard Landing In China? Forbes
2009. China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. Fortune
2010: Hard landing coming in China. Nouriel Roubini
2011: Chinese Hard Landing Closer Than You Think. Business Insider
2012: Economic News from China: Hard Landing. American Interest
2013: A Hard Landing In China. Zero Hedge
2014. A hard landing in China. CNBC
2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Forbes
2016. Hard landing looms for China. The Economist
2017. Is China's Economy Going To Crash? National Interest
2018. China's Coming Financial Meltdown. The Daily Reckoning.
2019 China's Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? BBC2020. Coronavirus Could End China's Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak. NY Times
2021 Chinese economy risks deeper slowdown than markets realize. Bloomberg
2022. China Surprise Data Could Spell R-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n. Bloomberg.
Justin Yifu Lin: by 2030, China's GDP still has the potential to grow by 8 percent a year by 2030. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/growth-and-the-chinese-economy-s-latecomer-advantage-by-justin-yifu-lin-2013-08