Excellent article. Another factor that will be increasingly pertinent in Sino-Russian relations would be who succeeds both Putin and Xi Jinping. Both countries are ruled under an autocratic one-man strongman-style system (regardless of their nominal trappings of government-by-group-consensus). There's precious little outsider analysts know about both the wider Chinese and Russian political apparatus' views of each other and their predominant driving motives without the influence of their leaders setting the direction and tone. Once either Putin or XJP goes (or both go), all bets are off as to who succeeds them, and how domestic politics and foreign policies will evolve for both countries.
Excellent article. Another factor that will be increasingly pertinent in Sino-Russian relations would be who succeeds both Putin and Xi Jinping. Both countries are ruled under an autocratic one-man strongman-style system (regardless of their nominal trappings of government-by-group-consensus). There's precious little outsider analysts know about both the wider Chinese and Russian political apparatus' views of each other and their predominant driving motives without the influence of their leaders setting the direction and tone. Once either Putin or XJP goes (or both go), all bets are off as to who succeeds them, and how domestic politics and foreign policies will evolve for both countries.
Very good points thanks Andy, and you are very right to say that the future power transition for either side could substantially rock the boat.