Welcome to my new weekly newsletter, What China Wants.
When I asked a China-watching friend of mine what he thought China wanted, he kindly summed it up in a haiku for me:
What does China want?
Absolutely everything.
The West should be frit*.
(*For those if you living outside the bounds of Merrie Olde England, “frit” is an old dialect word for being frightened).
This newsletter will, over the months and years to come, explore if my friend is right or exaggeratingly wrong.
What is absolutely sure is that by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic, the Chinese Communist Party is determined to have reached great power status.
The way its economy is booming, its military growing, its cultural influence flowering, and its political dominance emerging, it is hard to see how China won’t be a great power by then, if not way before.
The main question to ask is not, therefore, about China’s strategic arrival. It is whether the US, and the West more broadly, will be able to hold on to greatness politically, economically, militarily, and culturally.
As the Oxford professor of the history and politics of modern China Rana Mitter recently observed, “With all the increased attention China has received in the Western press this last year or so, especially since Covid, there has been a rise in interest in all things Chinese; unfortunately, there has not been the commensurate increase in expertise.”
Hopefully What China Wants will help to fill this expertise gap, by illuminating what China is doing at home and abroad. My insights will come from speaking to China watchers around the world, but also from my own quarter of a century studying the country and its relationship with the outside world.
All comments are welcome – this should be as interactive as possible – and please do share it with a couple of people you know. I plan to send out a weekly missive on Tuesdays, and more if the situation or requests demand it.
There are those in China and the West who want to drive the two sides apart. This is in no one’s long term interests – but neither is fawning acquiescence to whatever the other side demands. What China Wants will shine a light on what China is up to in the world, and by doing so I hope to increase the understanding between West and East - thereby encouraging cooperation rather than aggressive competition. It’s worth a try at least…
The first letter this coming Tuesday will be a look at how China and America are faring economically in the race for Asian influence. One side will be considerably surprised and disappointed in the data.