The Evenstar Institute's Weekly Chinese Influence Bulletin
China's influence in Southeast Asia, Solomon Islands, American popularity increasing against China
Hello and welcome back to What China Wants.
Below we publish the weekly newsletter of the Evenstar Institute, the parent of What China Wants and a think tank dedicated to measuring and understanding national influence in the 21st century.
ABOUT THE EVENSTAR BULLETIN
The Evenstar Institute's weekly bulletin comprises updates on changing global influence, macro supply chain events, and other China-related news. We will also highlight books, articles, events, and episodes of our podcast, What China Wants.
If you have any questions about the contents of the bulletin or the Institute's research, get in touch via our website.
INFLUENCE UPDATES
New Survey identifies improved popularity of the US and pushback on Chinese influence
Civil Society and Cultural and Demographic Reach
A new poll of 1,308 Southeast Asians by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute published on 9 February showed that America’s popularity has increased in Southeast Asia, while perceptions of Chinese and influence and attitudes towards it have also shifted.
Respondents were asked “If ASEAN were forced to align itself with one of the two strategic rivals, US or China, which should it choose?” The survey responses showed that American popularity had reached 61.1%, up from 57.0% in 2022. Correspondingly, 38.9% of respondents chose China.
The survey also found that the perception remains that China is the most influential and strategic power in the region. However, that figure had declined significantly from 54.4% in 2022 to 41.5%. Furthermore, nearly half of those who believe future relations will improve with China see its influence “as a potential problem”, the study says.
Sharon Seah, a senior fellow and coordinator at the ASEAN Studies Centre highlighted the correlation between this shift in attitudes and renewed engagement by the Biden administration in Southeast Asia. Seah noted that in 2020, 77% of respondents stated that the level of US engagement had decreased significantly under the Trump administration. In contrast, in 2023, almost 40% say that engagement has increased.
Chinese companies withdraw from global subsea cable project
Digital Infrastructure
The Financial Times reported on 10 February that two of China’s largest telecoms groups, China Telecom and China Mobile, have withdrawn their involvement in an internet cable project. The Sea-Me-We 6 pipeline which is expected to be completed in 2025, consists of 19,200 km of cables connecting Southeast Asia to Western Europe.
The combined investment of the two companies previously represented approximately 20% ownership within a consortium that also includes Microsoft, Orange, and Telecom Egypt. China Unicom, a much smaller state-owned company, has remained involved with an unspecified investment in the project.
Industry figures with knowledge of the project were described as stating that this departure can be interpreted as a signal of intensifying tensions between the US and China. It is reported that the two companies withdrew from the project last year, after the consortium selected US company SubCom to build the line, rather than the bid from Chinese company, Hengtong Marine.
Vocal China critic politician ousted in no confidence vote
Government and Administration
The Solomon Islands. Daniel Suidani, premier of Malaita province and a vocal critic of the country’s relationship with China was ousted in a vote of no confidence at the provincial assembly on 7 February. The filed motion alleged that Suidani had illegally solicited money from a Chinese-owned mining company, used government finances to pay the wages of his personal security guards and of financial mismanagement. The vote passed unanimously after the premier and his executive walked off the floor of the assembly, boycotting the motion.
The move has led to protests by Suidani's supporters in Auki, Malaita province. Suidani had been one of the most outspoken critics of the country’s relationship with China, having objected to both the 2022 security pact and the decision to break ties with Taiwan in 2019. Since the no confidence vote, an adviser to Suidani alleged that the opposition has taken a majority in the assembly, and can be expected to publish a statement that recognises China.
Britain paid GBP 2.3 billion to the European Union to settle China Import Fraud Case
Finance, Trade, and Investment
The Treasury disclosed on 9 February that it had paid the European Union GBP 2.3 billion to settle a long-standing fraud case relating to imports of Chinese textiles and footwear when Britain was a member of the bloc. The sum was paid in three instalments over the past seven months, with the final payment of GBP 1.1 billion paid out on 6 February.
The European Commission had sued the UK in March 2018 over undervaluation fraud involving Chinese imports. The investigation found that HMRC “failed to check impossibly low valuations put on Chinese consignments arriving into Britain”. The Times reported that in one case, the average value declared at the UK border for women’s cotton trousers was EUR 0.91 per kg, compared with an EU average of EUR 26.09. The European Court of Justice ruled against Britain in March 2022 after finding that more than half of all textiles and footwear imported into the UK from China were below “the lowest acceptable prices”.
OTHER NEWS
Evenstar Institute holds preview event for Southeast Asia influence paper
On 8 February, the Evenstar Institute was very pleased to hold a preview event for our latest research paper “Southeast Asia’s Emerging Geopolitical Order: China’s Structural Influence and the Evolving Regional Balance of Power”. The report is the culmination of six months’ work and quantifies and explains the evolution of China's Influence in Southeast Asia through the analysis of all ten ASEAN member states over the period 2011-2020.
Our thanks go to all those who came to the preview of our paper, and to Adarga, our technology partners, for their support in delivering influence research and in putting on the event. A summary of the report’s findings and recommendations can be found here. We will send you the full report directly when it is published next week.
THE PODCAST
A reminder that in this week’s What China Wants podcast (published every Thursday), Sam and Stewart discussed the latest research from the Evenstar Institute, looking at the rise in China’s influence in Southeast Asia.
You can also listen to the podcast on Apple, Amazon, or Spotify.
ABOUT THE EVENSTAR INSTITUTE
The Evenstar Institute is a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank focused on measuring and understanding the evolving nature of national influence in the twenty first century.
If you would like to support us, please visit the donate page on our website.
Hi Sam the colour Geopolitical insert is too lo-res to read. BA