The depressing reason for China's support of Russia

How Beijing is planning its defences against future American action

Hello and welcome to What China Wants.

Today I’m continuing the analysis of China’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and addressing a question that has been often asked these past few weeks: why won’t China distance itself from Russia?

The answer, as is often the case with China, lies in long-term thinking. But what is more important is our assessment as to why Beijing is thinking like this in the first place: because they are preparing their defences against future American action.

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Over the last few weeks the US government has been at pains to make China realise that it is on the “wrong side of history” when it comes to its refusal to back the West in its sanctioning of post-invasion Russia. Not only that, but it has threatened China with “consequences” if its so-called neutral stance tips into supplying arms to Russia.

Although it is unclear what these consequences would be, China is most likely not yet in a strong enough position to withstand any significant economic sanctions put on it by the West. As I mentioned last week, much of its technology, fuel, and food comes either from the nations aligned against Russia, or is paid for in dollars. Economically, China has no choice but to pay attention to what the America says about sanctions.

Then there is the Chinese elite. Like their Russian counterparts, many of the “who’s who” of China spend their time in the West, whether for business, holiday, or the education of their children. Running the risk of Western wrath runs the risk of destabilization at home, given how the elites are likely to react against any sanctions placed on them.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is fixated on internal security, and spends more money on controlling its population than it does on external defence. With this in mind, and the potential for disorder that American action could generate, it seems strange that China would not fall into the West’s camp over Russia. As the former Foreign Minister of Australia, Alexander Downer, notes, how can this enhance China’s security?

An insight into Beijing’s thinking on this came a couple of days ago in a social media post on the Chinese platform Weibo. The author was Hu Xijin, the recently retired Editor-in-Chief of the CCP’s tabloid mouthpiece the Global Times. It is not, it’s fair to say, a shrinking violet of a paper: its writers are constantly urging the nation’s leaders to smash or bash any country that either dares to stand up to China or insults it in somehow. These are not random rants, however. The Global Times has strong connections to the top of the CCP and is generally considered to be a reliable source of what (at least some of) the Party is thinking.

As always, blame America. Source: the Global Times

This makes Hu Xijin’s recent musings even more interesting, because what he states is that Beijing is playing the long game with Moscow. The aim is for the CCP to use Russia as a bulwark against future American action against them.

“There is support between China and Russia when it comes to superficial matters like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and other issues,” notes Hu. But, he claims, the most important aspect is the back-to-back strategic relationship between the two nations. Although Russia is the focus right now, it is clear that China is America’s main strategic competitor – and so when Washington turns back to dealing with Beijing, China will be grateful to have Russia on its side.

Hu goes on to say that Beijing and Moscow working together is a win-win for them both. It is harder for the US to pressure China when it retains access to Russia’s food, energy, and other resources. Likewise, China has the edge over America in conventional military forces, and together with Russia’s nuclear umbrella, the two countries are too difficult for the US to take on. “We must use our own strength to make the United States accept peaceful coexistence with China. Russia is China's most important partner to achieve this goal.”

If Xi and the CCP think that whatever they do, America is going to come for them next, then their stance on Russia makes perfect sense. Indeed, many argue that China is already defending itself against American economic action, following Trump’s trade war and the blacklist on investment into Chinese companies that Biden has strengthened. If China expects Russian-style sanctions to happen anyway, then it is best to keep a vast pool of resources (i.e., Russia) onside to help cushion the blow.

Look carefully and you can see that their strategy on Russia is part of a suite of defences being established. Dual-Circulation strategy (for greater self-reliance), the internationalisation of the RMB (to wean itself off dollars), and the sucking in of Wall Street money (who will hopefully dissuade the US government from attacking China lest they lose their investments) are all part of the same defensive plan.

Conflicts – either economic or kinetic – do not happen without a spark, and the obvious one to ignite a clash between Washington and Beijing is Taiwan. Despite the dire situation Russia finds itself in Ukraine, our research has failed to show any obvious softening in the CCP’s line about reunification with Taiwan since the invasion began.

Putting all this together - China’s stance on Russia, establishing its wider defences, and its unchanging stance on reunification by force if necessary - paints a painful picture for the coming years. Of course, it takes two to tango, and America and the West may decide to ignore whatever China does with Taiwan and therefore not trigger Beijing’s defences.

But given how hard Washington, London, and Brussels - plus their global allies - have come after Moscow for trying to upend the global order, it is unlikely to say the least that they would ignore Chinese action over Taiwan. Only at that point will it be clear if Beijing has chosen the right or the wrong side of history with its position on Russia and Ukraine.