Thanks Godfree for your comments, as always. To answer your points:
1. You are correct that Intel can't compete with TSMC at the moment, but a few things need to be remembered. First, the CHIPS Act is designed for Intel & other US firms to do just that. Plus the Chip 4 Alliance (with TW, SKor & JAP) should, if it works, bring more capability to the US and its allies. Second, China is now cut off from all the Western Alliance machinery that it needs to make these chips. Intel doesn't have that problem.
2. You assume that the new photonic chip factory will produce cutting edge chips, and you may be right, but the technology isn't properly proven yet. (Although, to be fair, in order to prove it you have to build it.) That said, do you know that the photonic factory isn't going to be hit by the US sanctions? If I had to guess I would say the US included this in its thinking when making the decision about what to sanction. Unless you have any other info on this?
3. I'm pretty sure that you would struggle to find a single military expert outside of China who would agree that China dominates the Western Pacific militarily. The first island chain is dominated by the Western Alliance and Chinese vessels have to get past these islands to get out into the wider Pacific. Do you have any insights to back up your claim on China's power there?
1. "China simply cannot produce anything close to cutting edge chips”. Nor can Intel. In fact, China is closer to the edge than Intel.
2. "My guess is that Chinese leaders are getting rosier predictions than I'm giving you about China's capabilities”. If you saw how Xi spoke to Trudeau this week, you'll know he's not a guy who bullshits or tolerates bullshit. He publicly sounded the alarm on this issue in 2015 and, if push came to shove right now, China would be internally self-sufficient down to 7nm. The opening of the first mass-production photonic chip fab in Beijing next year will give China the lead in that technology.
3. "If China manages somehow to assert control over Taiwan without a war, that will be a very different and more dangerous situation”. China has only to announce that all Taiwanese exports must clear China Customs (most already do) and it's game over. China utterly dominates the West Pacific militarily. See 'All Your West Pacific Belong China Now..'
Thanks Godfree for your comments, as always. To answer your points:
1. You are correct that Intel can't compete with TSMC at the moment, but a few things need to be remembered. First, the CHIPS Act is designed for Intel & other US firms to do just that. Plus the Chip 4 Alliance (with TW, SKor & JAP) should, if it works, bring more capability to the US and its allies. Second, China is now cut off from all the Western Alliance machinery that it needs to make these chips. Intel doesn't have that problem.
2. You assume that the new photonic chip factory will produce cutting edge chips, and you may be right, but the technology isn't properly proven yet. (Although, to be fair, in order to prove it you have to build it.) That said, do you know that the photonic factory isn't going to be hit by the US sanctions? If I had to guess I would say the US included this in its thinking when making the decision about what to sanction. Unless you have any other info on this?
3. I'm pretty sure that you would struggle to find a single military expert outside of China who would agree that China dominates the Western Pacific militarily. The first island chain is dominated by the Western Alliance and Chinese vessels have to get past these islands to get out into the wider Pacific. Do you have any insights to back up your claim on China's power there?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Great interview!! A few niggles:
1. "China simply cannot produce anything close to cutting edge chips”. Nor can Intel. In fact, China is closer to the edge than Intel.
2. "My guess is that Chinese leaders are getting rosier predictions than I'm giving you about China's capabilities”. If you saw how Xi spoke to Trudeau this week, you'll know he's not a guy who bullshits or tolerates bullshit. He publicly sounded the alarm on this issue in 2015 and, if push came to shove right now, China would be internally self-sufficient down to 7nm. The opening of the first mass-production photonic chip fab in Beijing next year will give China the lead in that technology.
3. "If China manages somehow to assert control over Taiwan without a war, that will be a very different and more dangerous situation”. China has only to announce that all Taiwanese exports must clear China Customs (most already do) and it's game over. China utterly dominates the West Pacific militarily. See 'All Your West Pacific Belong China Now..'
https://herecomeschina.substack.com/p/all-your-west-pacific-belong-china