Thanks Shannon, very interesting points. I think it is impossible to not agree that Xi is ruthless and will not hesitate to do what he needs to keep him and the CCP in power.
I do though believe he is capable of reform, as has been shown in his time at the top. The more important question is, what kind of reform? Is he going to do what's good for the economy, or what is good for the political status of the Party? In many ways this is a moot point because for the CCP, everything that happens in terms of reform has to be directed at strengthening the Party.
JT: "At the same time, I think that the last thing he wants to do is to make a decision that's so dangerous, that it puts the CCP’s position in danger, which is what a war with Taiwan could do."
Take another look at Xi's career, focusing on the personal and party risks he has taken to backtrack on party-led collective decision-making. He has been rewarded time and time again for taking extraordinary risks, so that now, he must - - else a political rival will. Also, we need to re-think what "popular" means in Lenninst and in Chinese terms. Yes, popularity - or loyalty from your own - matters enormously in the Party and in China. They call it "guanxi."
Xi has a narrow window to achieve all HE wants, which includes Taiwan's annexation for his own legacy. He is similar to Putin in that way. It really is as primitive and shallow as that. He must also restore the honor that has been taken from his family by other more privileged and educated elite in China. He has even verbally hinted at how the "reform process" needed to be reigned in at various times in his career. Xi knows jack-all about reforming anything and cares even less. Rather, criticizing Deng's reforms are a direct attack on Deng's proteges and the pro-reform in the party have been jailed for criticizing Xi in response.
Finally, Xi has made clear that he has known about China's middle income destiny for years and felt the only way to - if not remedy it - then at least continue to feed China's 1.4 billion and keep the state's gold flowing, was to take the number one spot in global trade. Food security in China is that much of an issue. It's also necessary for sanction proofing in preparation to attack or blockade Taiwan.
Anyway, expanding China's exclusive economic zone and regional dominance past Taiwan are absolutely imperative to keeping the party in power because things at home have become that dire. Population decline, retiring military expertise, plummeting economy, and other inescapable and worsening local and regional pressures that keep planners awake at night make Taiwan "reunification" urgent for the dug-in who have backed Xi as their guy.
Thanks Shannon, very interesting points. I think it is impossible to not agree that Xi is ruthless and will not hesitate to do what he needs to keep him and the CCP in power.
I do though believe he is capable of reform, as has been shown in his time at the top. The more important question is, what kind of reform? Is he going to do what's good for the economy, or what is good for the political status of the Party? In many ways this is a moot point because for the CCP, everything that happens in terms of reform has to be directed at strengthening the Party.
Anyway, time will tell...
Very informative Sam - I would love to know the words being painted by that picture!
Hope all is well in S H-O world
JT: "At the same time, I think that the last thing he wants to do is to make a decision that's so dangerous, that it puts the CCP’s position in danger, which is what a war with Taiwan could do."
Take another look at Xi's career, focusing on the personal and party risks he has taken to backtrack on party-led collective decision-making. He has been rewarded time and time again for taking extraordinary risks, so that now, he must - - else a political rival will. Also, we need to re-think what "popular" means in Lenninst and in Chinese terms. Yes, popularity - or loyalty from your own - matters enormously in the Party and in China. They call it "guanxi."
Xi has a narrow window to achieve all HE wants, which includes Taiwan's annexation for his own legacy. He is similar to Putin in that way. It really is as primitive and shallow as that. He must also restore the honor that has been taken from his family by other more privileged and educated elite in China. He has even verbally hinted at how the "reform process" needed to be reigned in at various times in his career. Xi knows jack-all about reforming anything and cares even less. Rather, criticizing Deng's reforms are a direct attack on Deng's proteges and the pro-reform in the party have been jailed for criticizing Xi in response.
Finally, Xi has made clear that he has known about China's middle income destiny for years and felt the only way to - if not remedy it - then at least continue to feed China's 1.4 billion and keep the state's gold flowing, was to take the number one spot in global trade. Food security in China is that much of an issue. It's also necessary for sanction proofing in preparation to attack or blockade Taiwan.
Anyway, expanding China's exclusive economic zone and regional dominance past Taiwan are absolutely imperative to keeping the party in power because things at home have become that dire. Population decline, retiring military expertise, plummeting economy, and other inescapable and worsening local and regional pressures that keep planners awake at night make Taiwan "reunification" urgent for the dug-in who have backed Xi as their guy.